Tongkun (601233) 2019 performance forecast comment: performance forecast exceeds expectations filament industry leader continues to benefit

Tongkun (601233) 2019 performance forecast comment: performance forecast exceeds expectations filament industry leader continues to benefit

Event: The company released a 2019 performance forecast, and realized a net profit attributable to RMB 2.8 billion to RMB 3 billion, an increase of 32% -41% per year, and a performance after deduction of 26.

8-29.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 29% -42% each year.

Based on this calculation, the company’s fourth quarter performance was 3.

5-5.

500 million, a positive turn over the same period last year.

Event comment: The operation of the polyester filament industry has stabilized, and restructuring has faded without hindering post-holiday recovery.

In 2019, the polyester filament industry has recovered from the sharp decline in 2018Q4, and supply and demand have gradually stabilized. The average POY price was 7,936 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1,587 yuan / ton from the previous year, but the price difference has dropped by 98 yuan / ton.

While the average price of the main raw material PTA dropped significantly by 707 yuan / ton, the average price difference increased by 96 yuan / ton, which was mainly due to the transfer of internal profit of the industrial chain brought by the upstream refinery and chemical project.

Since entering the fourth quarter of 2019, the polyester filament industry has entered a traditional off-season, and the price spread has dropped slightly from the previous month. The average price of POY is 7093 yuan / ton, the price is down 849 yuan / ton, and the price difference is 335 yuan / ton.4878 yuan / ton.

The main business of filaments is constantly developing, and the market share is expected to continue to increase.

The company is a domestic leader in polyester filaments. As of mid-2019, it has a capacity of 570 tons of polyester filaments. It has achieved the first production and sales volume in the domestic and international markets for more than ten years. The domestic market share of polyester filaments exceeds 16%.The global share is about 11%.

At the same time, the company has continuously improved the strength and scale of its main business. Hengyou, Hengyou technical transformation, Hengteng and other projects have been steadily advancing, gradually increasing its market share and consolidating its leading position in the industry.

In addition, after the upstream refining and chemical projects have been put into production, the profit of the industrial chain has shifted to the middle and lower reaches; the concentration of leading companies in the filament industry has increased, and the company’s bargaining power has been strengthened; under the background of the continuous increase in global counter-cyclical policies, downstream demand may come out of the bottom;In the future, the profit level of the filament industry is expected to remain at a relatively high level. As the industry leader, the company will fully benefit.

The whole process of Zhejiang Petrochemical is completed, which is expected to increase the company’s performance.

At the end of 2019, Rongsheng Petrochemical announced that the 4000 / year integrated refining and chemical integration project (Phase 1) was fully put into operation.

As a shareholder of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the company holds 20% of its shares.

The commencement of the Zhejiang Petrochemical project is expected to contribute to stable investment income and increase the company’s performance, and will extend the company’s polyester industry chain to upstream PX replacement, which greatly expands the company’s future development space.

Investment suggestion: The company’s polyester fiber will increase in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the profit per ton of the product will be maintained. The growth of performance will mainly depend on the volume of sales.

At the same time, the upstream large-scale refining and chemical industry will provide incremental production with long-term growth logic. It is expected that the company’s net profit will be 39 in 2020-2021.

4.8 billion, 49.

1.8 billion, if 3.8 billion convertible bonds are not considered, the corresponding valuation is 6.

73 times, 5.

45 times.

Based on the judgment of the profit 武汉夜网论坛 stability of the filament price, we maintain the BUY rating.

Risk warning events: Oil prices and product prices have risen sharply; expansion of capacity release has fallen short of expectations; the domestic economy has fallen sharply.